Good Wednesday bloggers,
The next seven-10 days our area will be in between locations that see highs in the 80s with daily chances of thunderstorms and locations where highs are 95°-105° each day with little chance of rain. This keeps the trend of KC being one of the hardest places to forecast the weather.
What is going on?
The "heat wave creating machine," upper level high is centered in the southwest USA. This puts our area on the edge of its influence. Around the edge of the upper level high you get an endless supply of disturbances that can and often produce thunderstorms once they encounter the heat and humidity east of the Rockies.
The quick thunderstorms this morning were caused by the southern edge of a bigger system tracking across the Great Lakes. There are disturbances located in the northern Rockies and southern California, lined up like planes at O'Hare. Also, there is a secondary stream of moisture and disturbances just inside the upper level high due to an the increasing monsoon in the southwest USA.
So, this makes our forecast tough as we are close enough to the heat to have some very hot days, and close enough to the thunderstorm track to have thunderstorms and not as hot. We have to take this forecast one day at a time.
Today through the weekend we are on the edge of the upper level high, so we will have thunderstorm chances every day. These thunderstorms are not all day events, so we can still get highs well in to the 90s if the thunderstorms are not timed during peak heating of the day. Peak heating of the day is about 1-5 p.m.
If we are going to have two-three days where we have a chance to make a run at 100° it will be early next week as the upper level high shifts east to the central Plains. The middle and end of next week will see the "heat wave creating machine" retreat quickly back to the southwest USA.
Let's go through this tough forecast into early next week.
TODAY:
We are going 99° as the sun will be out the rest of the day. It may not get the hot, but, we should get to 95°-98°.
THURSDAY:
This is looking like a day where thunderstorm chances are timed during or very close to peak heating. You can see highs around 100° across Kansas, except near the state line and central and eastern Missouri. Our area is cooler as one of the disturbances is moving through. Our high temperature will likely be in the 90°-95° range. It will be higher if the disturbance is weaker or timed different.
The cooler high temperatures and thunderstorm area lines up pretty well.
FRIDAY:
This day has a chance to be in the upper 90s, but look at central Kansas, even to Emporia. Temperatures are in the upper 80s to low 90s as another disturbance is moving in.
Right now the disturbance is timed for after peak heating. If it comes in faster, we will have cooler high temperatures here.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
We will not only be tracking disturbances, but a wavering front. This means the door is open for bigger thunderstorms and highs in the 80s to low 90s. The high heat is very close. So, we will have to refine this forecast as we get closer to it.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Right now it looks like this is the best chance to see high heat for two-three days. But, look how close highs in the 70s and 80s with thunderstorms are located. A slight shift south, or even just an outflow boundary from thunderstorms near by may keep us cooler.
Any thunderstorms the next 10 days will have a chance to produce damaging winds and hail. But, most will bring beneficial rain.
Most locations the next 10 days should see at least .25-1" of rain with the chance to see 1"-3" of rain. We need it!
We may see three-five days out of the next 10 that have highs exceeding 95° but not have a heat wave. Remember it takes three straight days with highs 95° or higher to have a heat wave.
Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.
