KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,
The weather pattern is now moving into the third cycle of this year's LRC. Near the beginning of each of the previous two cycles, storm systems formed over the western half of the nation and then produced severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and winter storms as they moved into the middle of the nation. This is beginning to line up now in the third cycle.
The stormier part of the cycling pattern is still around a week away from getting started. Let's begin by looking at the upper-level flow developing this week.
On these three maps, we are looking at the flow around 18,000 feet up above us. This is called the 500 MB (millibar) level. The top of the atmosphere has no weight above it, or no pressure, and as a result, the pressure is 0 MB. At the surface, the pressure is close to 1,000 MB. So, 500 MB is halfway through the atmosphere in weight.
Amazingly, this level is around 18,000 feet above us, and this is my favorite level to track storm systems. It is usually storming along and east of troughs, and the weather is more often dry and stormless near and east of ridges. On the above map, you can see an elongated trough swinging across Hudson Bay, in Canada, and extending southwest to near Kansas City. As this swings by on Friday, a strong cold front will move through.
It will turn very cold Friday night and Saturday. I wish I could stop it, but I can't. Temperatures will be in the 20s for highs and down into the teens for lows. This cold blast will only last one day due to that major change as we begin the third LRC.
This net map shows the ridge moving inland and weakening, the trough becoming negatively tilted, and producing a storm near the east coast with rain and snow. We will stay dry until that next system approaches. Oh, there may be a few showers nearby, but nothing major until that next system develops, the one you can see off the West Coast.
The weather pattern then becomes favorable for an impacting storm to form. Look at how the energy dives into the southwestern U.S. How this forms and tracks will help decide whether Kansas City gets some badly needed moisture.
The overnight data has been trending into this developing storm, which still keeps Kansas City on the northwestern edge. This is what has been happening with most of these storm systems this season.
This forecast map shows the potential for a severe weather outbreak and for a winter element to this storm. It is just too far away to get specific. It is the part of the pattern we predicted would have this potential two months ago. And, here it is. I just hope it sets up to bring our region some badly needed moisture.
We will get more specific in the coming days. In the meantime, let's enjoy another nice winter day. Expect a high in the middle 50s this afternoon!
Thank you for sharing this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. We will be tracking these changes on KSHB 41 News today and tonight.
Gary
