Good morning bloggers,
Dangerous Hurricane Ian is taking aim on western Florida this morning. It is looking to be a bit farther south and faster than what the National Hurricane Center had yesterday.
Ian has become a Category 3 Hurricane making it the second major hurricane of the season and the first threat to the United States. This may be the only landfalling named hurricane this season. Weather 20/20 predicted this hurricane six months ago using the LRC and it was the only landfall target we had in our forecast using the LRC. Now, where will it track? There is a lot on the line here from people's lives, damage to structures and impacts such as the Kansas City Chiefs game against Tampa Bay Sunday night.
The yellow areas show four of the models that came out overnight. The NHC track shows Tampa Bay getting blasted and there is a trend that it could be a bit farther south than this track shows.
Ian may weaken slightly in the next hour, and then it will likely strengthen later this morning into tonight as it approaches the coast. It looks like it will make landfall Wednesday night.
There are still a few uncertainties about this storm:
- The exact track is still uncertain
- The trend continues to be south and a bit faster
- The strength at landfall may be a major hurricane and wide spread devastation is likely between Naples and Tampa Bay
We will learn a lot more in the next 12 hours. I will do a Facebook Live at 9:15 PM tonight.
For KC, our weather is just going to be incredible. The new LRC sets up in the next two to six weeks, so hopefully it shows us some rain soon. For now, let's take in this great weather.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog and sharing in this weather experience.
Gary
