KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,
A winter storm warning has been issued by the National Weather Service. There will be significant impacts in the Kansas City region beginning later tonight. Roads will become slick and hazardous with some significant accumulations of snow likely centered near Kansas City. It's a rare setup, and yet one we have seen twice this season already.
Now, with this said, this is not really a strong storm system. What do I mean by that statement? Well, let's take a look. What is causing this system is a rare combination of what we call "jet dynamics," "thermodynamics," and a seasonal effect in the fact that it is March. This is just a very unusual setup. We are usually looking at an upper-level low, where I can show you the center of this storm. Take a look at the upper-level flow forecast at 6 a.m. Thursday:
There is no upper-level low at all showing up. This is another system that is very positively tilted. It is tilted from right to left, or from northeast to southwest. The dashed line shows the extreme tilt. Now, we have had a setup like this many times this season, and right on what the LRC would tell us for this week. In the first two cycles of this year's LRC, we had results from this part of the pattern. If you go back to Nov. 1, 2021, or 128 days ago, and if you read the blog, then you will know our first snowflakes of the season fell that day. If you fast forward to Jan. 6, then you would know that this part of the pattern produced a band of snow from Seattle southeast to Paola, Kansas. It just barely missed the Kansas City metro in the last cycle, but it still produced 2 to 4 inches of snow just southwest of us.
So, here we are in LRC cycle three, and it is doing something so incredibly similar, but this time we have the March version. The part of the pattern that produced our first snowflakes of the season, and then 2 to 4 inches just southwest of Kansas City, is now about to produce again, and this time due to the spring twist, we are about to have higher accumulations.
Jeff showed this forecast map last night, and I left the numbers off as I wanted to wait and see how the models were trending. The models that show the higher amounts have been redeveloping a second band of snow on Thursday evening. The models that have lower amounts have developed this band farther south. We will discuss this band a bit more in just a second.
Most impressive to us is the fact this system has already produced similar setups in the previous two LRC cycles, and this gives us higher confidence. Last night, Jeff went with these totals and I see no reason to update them yet.
This rare and unusual storm system will be developing an area of snow later this evening to around 2 a.m. tonight as you can see here:
This map above shows an area of snow already forming and strengthening northwest of Kansas City after midnight tonight. It also extends to the east of the Kansas-Missouri state line with temperatures well below freezing. This means that the first snowflakes that fall will begin accumulating and this will help maximize the snowfall potential.
And then the snow will weaken later in the day as we anticipate the potential redevelopment of new radar echoes during the evening. The snow will likely go through a transition while we get into the late afternoon and evening Thursday:
We will be monitoring this second part of the storm later today. It will be quite fascinating to watch this unfold. We are predicting that the first band of snow will move in between 2 and 6 a.m. Thursday and last into the afternoon. And, then there should be evidence of the second band, which will become the main band, forming between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. Thursday evening. This second band would likely become pretty heavy. Will it form right over Kansas City, or just south of us?
The incredible LRC analysis of this system
For those of you following the LRC, here is another one of those "you can't make that up" moments. 35-years-ago I discovered that the weather pattern above us is cycling regularly. 40-years before I discovered this, a famous meteorologist, Jerome Namais, discovered this as well, but he never broke through with this innovative weather forecast technique. I am spending my entire life/career trying to do just that, and here is another one of those examples.
Take a look at the part of the cycling weather pattern that we already experienced in the first LRC cycle in early November; the second LRC cycle in January, and now, in the third LRC cycle:
- The top left map is from Nov. 1, 2021, early in the day. An area of rain and snow was developing in Nebraska and Eastern Wyoming. This is exactly what will be happening today, as you can see below on the bottom left map.
- The top right map is from Jan. 6, 2022, and the bottom right map is the forecast for later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An area of snow stretched across Colorado to southern Missouri, and that is exactly what is now forecast to happen in the next 36 hours
This is LRC Cycle 1, 2, and 3 all lined up. This is one of the systems we calculated into our winter forecast. In November, this system produced our first snowflakes of the season on Nov. 1. A band of rain and snow moved in from the northwest and many of you around Kansas City saw the snowflakes mixed in with the rain, and it maximized right near Interstate 70. In the second cycle, on Jan. 6, we predicted 1 to 3 inches of snow, and it happened just two counties south of Kansas City due to the Arctic air blasting in. The European Model was the worst model that day as it placed the snow farther north, just like it has been doing with this latest storm system. This is why the NWS and others went with the bulls-eye up north again, but we did not. Jeff Penner placed it farther south, and it is posted in this blog today.
The pattern is cycling this year at close to 64 days. So, yes, it will come again around May 10 to 13, but it will not snow then. It will likely be a potential flooding event with training thunderstorms moving in from the northwest. And, this will be a few days after a potential severe weather outbreak (remember what happened in Iowa a few days ago).
Why is this important? It is important because, if you knew, what would you do? We know what the weather pattern will look like far in advance. You can go and join the Weather 20/20 newsletter by clicking here: Weather 20/20 Newsletter Signup
So, because of this analysis, Jeff Penner had higher confidence yesterday and we made the decision to take the heaviest snow a bit farther south, just like it did in the January cycle. The March version of the LRC is now quite impressive with this system.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: Increasing clouds and staying dry. Northeast winds 5 to 15 miles per hour. High: 41 degrees
- Tonight: Snow developing and spreading in from the west by 6 a.m. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible. Low: 22 degrees
- 6 a.m. to 3 p.m. Thursday: Snow likely, possibly heavy at times during the morning and lighter during the afternoon. Accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible. High: 25 degrees
- 3 p.m. to 9 p.m. Thursday: A new band of snow increases as it passes south and east of Kansas City. An additional 1 to 2 inches are possible.
- Thursday night: Snow ending and very cold. Very slick and hazardous driving conditions. Low: 13 degrees
We will track the models as they come in this morning:
- The HRRR model: Widespread 3-6 inch totals with no well defined areas of higher amounts
- The NAM model: Widespread 3-8 inch amounts with an area of 5-8 inches in the area we showed on the snowfall forecast in this blog. It actually had the highest accumulation centered just south of the KC metro from around Paola, KS to Warrensburg, MO due to that second band forming right over the city and shifting south by 3 AM Friday.
- The ICON model: This ICON model has 1-2 inches near the Iowa border and wide spread 3-4 inch amounts in most other locations. It did produce a small 5-6 inch bulls-eye just south of Overland Park
- The. American model (GFS): The GFS has 1-3" north near the Iowa border with 3-5 inches across the KC metro area. It did not produce the second band of snow over KC Thursday night. It formed it south of the KC metro and there is a 6" bulls-eye farther south on this model near Clinton to Nevada, MO.
- The Canadian model: This model was aggressive with widespread 6-10 inch amounts over the entire KC metro area, with lower amounts near the Iowa border
- The European model: The Euro has widespread 3-5 inch amounts with the Thursday evening band forming way south
Our forecast: 4 to 8 inches across most of the Kansas City metro area with a few spots possibly getting an inch or so more. Farther north, over Northern Missouri, it is likely to be a bit less.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the blog and sharing this weather experience.
Gary
