Good Saturday morning,
It was a beautiful but frigid start to the weekend as we saw lows between 5° and 15°. We have been below freezing since around 1 AM on Tuesday the 22nd. A warming trend begins today. How warm will it get? How long will it last? When is our next chance of rain or snow?
Let's go through the forecast.
TODAY:
We will see a few clouds as highs climb to around 40°. The wind will be light from the southwest.
SUNDAY:
We will reach the low to mid 50s along with abundant sunshine. The cold air has retreated to the upper Midwest. It is north of a stationary front, which means it is not heading this way. The wind will be west to southwest at 5-15 mph.
MONDAY:
We will see highs reach the low to mid 60s along with more abundant sunshine. The cold air is still contained across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The wind will be west to southwest at 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY:
We will see highs make a run at 70° with more abundant sunshine. The cold air is still contained across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The wind will be west to southwest at 10-25 mph. The wind arrows form a "U" shape. This is a strong warming signature for us. Temperatures usually warm more than the models say. So, we may reach the low to mid 70s on this day if the "U" verifies like what is shown below.
WEDNESDAY:
The colder air will sag closer to our area, but KC should stay on the warm side of the front. Northern and central Missouri may get into the colder air, but barely, as highs will be in the 40s and 50s. There is limited moisture, so even with a front in the area we will see plenty of sunshine.
The average high as we end February and start March warms from 48° to 50°. We are about to have a nice stretch of weather where temperatures will run 10-20 degrees above average.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW:
It is timed for next weekend. A system will bring our area a chance of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. The latest data has our area on the western edge which has been the case since November. We have not seen much rain in 2022. Our precipitation has been mostly snow. It will be nice to get some rain, because we need it and to wash the salt and gunk off of the roads.
The system shown below is the first of around 3 systems that could bring our area some decent precipitation between March 5th and 20th.
PERCENT AVERAGE RAINFALL THE LAST 30 DAYS:
Central and eastern Missouri are doing good on precipitation with rainfall/melted ice and snow at 100-200% of average. Locations from northeast Kansas to northwest Missouri are in the 2% average of precipitation range. The KC area is on the border. KCI is at 42% of average while Lee's Summit is at 107% of average.
Have a great weekend.
Stay healthy.
