Good Wednesday bloggers,
We are still in active weather pattern as we track several chances of rain & thunderstorm chances through Sunday. But, even Mother Nature needs a break. And this break may begin just in time to get fireworks in tomorrow evening. I know there are some events tonight as well.
RAINFALL LAST 24 HOURS:
The heaviest bands occurred along I-70 east of KC where 3"-6" of rain occurred and along highway 36 expanding out to northeast Missouri where 2"-4" of rain fell. Flash flooding was an issue.
Now, what is next?
Let's go through the holiday weekend, day by day.
TODAY:
A series of small disturbances are tracking out of the southwest USA across the Plains. These disturbances are generating scattered showers with a few heavy downpours. No severe weather today.
TODAY THROUGH 5 P.M.:
Scattered rain showers mostly light to moderate with a few heavy downpours. We do not expect flash flooding or severe weather. Highs will be around 80°.
TODAY (5 P.M.-MIDNIGHT):
A few rain showers are possible, but it may stay mostly dry. If you are headed to the K, the Royals will either not be delayed or have an earlier, shorter delay. Temperatures will be in the low 70s with not much wind. We will be tracking a growing area of thunderstorms in the western Plains.
TONIGHT-FOURTH OF JULY (MIDNIGHT-9 A.M.):
This is where we have the best chance to see widespread rain & thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected, but flash flooding is a possibility. Lows will drop to around 70°.
FOURTH OF JULY (9 A.M.-NOON):
There is a chance any neighborhood morning parades are a go. But, there may be lingering showers and a few thunderstorms to keep an eye on. Temperatures will be 70°-75°.
FOURTH OF JULY (NOON-7 P.M.):
We are in a level 2 of 5 risk. But, yesterday it was about 200 miles north from where it is today. And, it may shift farther south again.
A cold front will be approaching at 2 p.m. and this may trigger scattered thunderstorms. If any form, they could be severe with all modes possible. Now, there are two ways the thunderstorms will not materialize in any severe way until they are way south.
1. The morning thunderstorms stabilize the atmosphere enough to prevent many thunderstorms from forming on the front before it moves by.
2. The front is moving fast and by the time any thunderstorms form on the front, it will be well south.
Both may occur to help out. Let's hope this trend continues
FOURTH OF JULY (2-9 P.M.):
The front is on the move. And there is a continued trend that by 9 p.m. the front will be well east with most thunderstorms way south. If this pans out it will be gorgeous for fireworks Thursday evening. Temperatures in the 70s with a northwest breeze at 10-15 mph, still a bit humid.
FRIDAY:
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon across far northern Missouri and northeast Kansas. Otherwise, it will be a nice day with highs in the low 80s and lower humidity.
SATURDAY:
This looks like the best pool day with highs 85°-90° and higher humidity along with a south breeze at 10-15 mph. And no chance of rain!
SUNDAY:
Remember it is an active weather pattern. So, a two-day break is about all we get. There is a chance of strong to maybe severe thunderstorms during the morning and/or later in the afternoon & evening. We will know more in a few days, as usual.
WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY:
Scattered rain showers will be around until 5-7 p.m. The best chance to see bigger thunderstorms is midnight to 9 a.m. Thursday.
As far as additional rainfall, most locations will see a new .25"-1" today and tomorrow. In the thunderstorm areas tonight amounts will be 2"-4". It is hose locations that may see flash flooding. It is hard to pinpoint the zone of the heaviest rain until we see how the thunderstorms set up.
Have a happy and safe Fourth of July weekend.
Please do NOT drink/text and drive.
