Good Thursday bloggers,
February is about to become March and we are tracking a big warm up for the first weekend of March. It took 8 hours for the 80° weather to exit on Tuesday and it will take 3-4 days for it to return. We are tracking three storms systems during the first 7-10 days of March and the last few minute of February as well.
We need the rain as we are in a "Red Flag Warning" which is also known as a "Fire Weather Warning". This means fires can start and spread easily, so outdoor burning is not recommended. The dry winter brush, the low humidity and winds 10-20 mph gusting to 30-35 mph are the prime ingredients for a high fire danger. Rain will put an end to the high fire danger. Also, we need more rain each week we get closer to the growing season.
Overall, we are in decent shape with soil moisture as the drought is pretty much gone. But, it has been a very dry February, so we need rain/snow ASAP.
RED FLAG WARNING (10 AM-9 PM THURSDAY):
We are on the southeast edge of the warning.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL MARCH 1-10:
We are on the western edge of the meaningful rainfall. So, this will help our dry situation. We average 0.76" March 1-10 and we have potential to see .50"-1" which is about average. Unfortunately, at this time most of the rain looks to occur east of the main current Red Flag Warning.
Now, how do we get to .50"-1" of rain the next 10 days? We are tracking three storm systems along with one big warm up. Let's go through this.
TODAY:
We will see highs in the 50s with increasing clouds as the first system we are tracking moves in from the south. You can see areas of rain across Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas. This system is bringing beneficial rain, ice and snow to locations that saw the devastating wildfire in Texas the other day.
The north edge of that southern system will move in after 9-10 PM tonight and exit 4-6 AM Friday. A few rain showers will be possible with amounts trace-.10". A few snowflakes may get mixed in as well, but temperatures will stay around 40°, so no icing is expected.
FRIDAY:
The day will start cloudy with lows around 40°. The day will end sunny with highs around 60°. A south breeze will occur at 10-20 mph. The fire danger will be reduced with higher humidity and hopefully some rain tonight.
The system from tonight will be in the east and southeast USA by Friday afternoon. 70s and 80s will be increasing in the southern USA.
SATURDAY:
Highs will climb to the 70s on south winds 15-30 mph along with abundant sunshine. The fire danger will be there, but the humidity will be higher and help. If you are heading to the Sporting KC home opener at 7:30 PM Saturday, the weather looks great with temperatures in the 60s along with a south breeze at 15-25 mph.
SUNDAY:
We will make a run at 80°. The record is 81° set in 1983. It will be mostly sunny and windy with south winds 20-40 mph. The higher humidity will help with fire danger.
The second system we are tracking is entering the Plains with a cold front.
MONDAY:
The front will move in as showers and thunderstorms form along the boundary. The rain and a few thunderstorms will likely be forming along and east of I-35. This puts us in the western edge of the rain.
The Arctic air with the front will stay in the northern Plains and Canada as the storm system associated with the front tracks north. We will cool in the 50s. If the front is slower, Monday will be in the 60s, turning cooler Tuesday.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY (MARCH 7-8):
This is when we will be tracking the third storm system. This has potential to be a bigger storm, but the details are far from set.
Have a great weekend and rest of your week.
Stay healthy.
