Good Labor Day bloggers —
We are in a calm and comfortable weather pattern as we move into September.
We are tracking one main system the next 10 days, and yes, it is timed for Thursday.
Before we get to the forecast let's look back at June-August. This is called "meteorological summer."
Astronomical summer, the one we all live by, including myself, ends at 8:43 a.m. on Sunday, Sept. 22. Then it is fall.
But, meteorological summer is used to make the statistics end at the end of a month instead of at the end of a 3rd week of the month.
June-August 2024:
The stats are from KCI, which is the official reporting station for Kansas City.
June was warmer and wetter than average.
July and August were drier and cooler than average. We finished the three months 2.54 inches below average rainfall.
These are radar estimated totals of rain the last 90 days.
So, if you have been keeping track of your rain, it may read different than what is shown.
It says KCI has seen 13 inches of rain; the actual amount is 11.53 inches.
But, this gives you an idea of the locations that had more rain.
Those locations were northern to central Missouri, far northeast Kansas and a few patches from Wichita to Kansas City.
When you average the three months for temperatures, it comes out at 0.0 degrees of average. Yes, right on average.
June was 2.5 degrees above average; July was 1.6 degrees below average and August finished 0.9 below average.
Below you can see the places where our months and summer rank since records began in 1888, 136 years ago.
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Now to the forecast.
September is starting cooler than average as well.
Let's go through this and look into the first week of September and track the one main storm system.
Today:
Lows this morning are in the low 50s with highs 75-80 degrees along with increasing high clouds and an east breeze at 5-15 mph.
The average high is 84 degrees with an average low of 63 degrees.
So, temperatures are running 5-10 degrees below average.
Highs will be running in the 60s across eastern Iowa and Wisconsin with sunshine — that is 10-15 degrees below average for those locations.
Tuesday:
It will be a nice day as the high clouds that move in later today will exit. Highs again will be 75°-80°. The wind will be southeast at 5-15 mph.
Wednesday:
It will be mostly sunny, slightly warmer and more humid with highs in the low 80s.
The wind will be south at 5-15 mph.
A system will track across Oklahoma, Arkansas and southeast Missouri, bringing showers and thunderstorms way south.
This is not the one main system we are tracking.
The one main system we are tracking will be in Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Thursday Chiefs opener (7 a.m. through 3 p.m.):
Right now this period looks mostly dry with increasing clouds.
Temperatures will warm to the low 80s with more humidity along with a southwest breeze at 5-15 mph.
Thursday (3-7 p.m.):
This is prime tailgating time.
This will also be the time when we expect a few showers and thunderstorms to form. Highs will be in the low 80s with more humid conditions.
Thursday (7-11 p.m.):
Well, the new data still shows the showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage.
So, we will have to watch this closely.
Now, this is not a big storm or a big severe weather set up.
But, like last week, some locations will see very heavy rain and gusty winds while others don't see a drop with a light breeze.
It is impossible this far out to figure out what Arrowhead will experience since we are dealing with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday (11 p.m. through Friday at 7 a.m.):
After 11 p.m., the scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit and slowly decrease.
So, at this moment, 7-11 p.m. Thursday looks to be the period where we have the best chance of thunderstorms the next 7-10 days.
Rainfall forecast next 7 days:
Rainfall will be trace -.50 inches with a few locations seeing .50-1 inches.
The timing for 99% of this rain is Thursday.
So, at this time for the Chiefs game and tailgating, we can't say much more than there is a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
If this timing continues, it may come down to nowcasting on whether Arrowhead is going to be impacted by thunderstorms.
This is forecasting from moment to moment because dealing with scattered thunderstorms is very hard to predict the location more than an hour in advance.
Let's not forget about the Royals who have a huge three-game series with the Guardians today-Wednesday. The weather looks great.
The weather also looks great Friday-Sunday when they have another big series with the Twins.
Have a great week ahead.
Stay healthy
GO ROYALS AND CHIEFS!
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