KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Friday bloggers,
Before we get to our heat, strong cold front and chance of rain, here are some pics of the Aurora last night. It was seen as far south as the Bahamas! Tonight, the southern edge of the Aurora appears to be I-80.
Thank you for all of the pictures. All are gorgeous.
This pic was taken by Austin Hamilton in Chariton, IA.
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DROUGHT CONDITIONS:
Now to the weather. "We need rain" is quite an understatement. We are now nearly 7" below average for the year and almost 9" below average since the 5th of July.
Here was the drought monitor on July 9th. 19% of the USA was in drought conditions.
Here is the drought monitor from October 8th. Three months later, 40% of the USA is in drought.
Our region is now seeing moderate to severe drought conditions increasing rapidly. This is level 2 to 3 of 5. We do see a chance of rain. More on that below.
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RECORD HEAT TO FROST:
FRIDAY:
Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s. The record today is 89° set in 1962. We will be close. The front to the north will stall, turn north as a warm front, then stall around I-80.
SATURDAY:
Since the front today is not coming through, it will make Saturday even warmer as warmer air is allowed to be brought farther northeast. The record high temperature is 91° set in 1899. We will be close to this one and we may tie or break it. Sunshine and a southwest wind 10-20 mph will bring in the hot & dry air mass.
The next cold front in Nebraska will come through Saturday night. It will bring the coolest airmass of the season, so far, to our area. But, no rain.
If we reach 90° or higher it will be the 3rd time this month and the 47th time in October since records began in 1887.
SUNDAY:
Highs will be in the low-to-mid 70s, with north winds 10-20 mph, gusting 25-30 mph. It will be a nice day with it feeling more like fall.
We will see a few periods of high clouds this weekend, but overall it will be another sunny weekend.
MONDAY:
It will really feel like fall as highs climb to the low and mid-60s with more sunshine.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING:
The cool and dry air with a clear sky and a surface high pressure over us will allow temperatures to drop fast. Lows will drop to the mid and upper 30s and may lead to our first frost. The average date for our first freeze is October 11-21. While this possible freeze is right on schedule, it may fall short
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
It will be another sunny, fall-feeling day with highs again in the low to mid 60s.
WEDNESDAY MORNING:
We will have our second chance to see a frost, likely falling just short of a freeze. Lows will again be in the mid to upper 30s as a surface high pressure tracks to our east.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:
The wind blows clockwise around high pressure, so with the high moving away to the east, we will see south winds return with, yes, more sunshine. Highs will go back to the low and mid 70s.
THURSDAY, 10/17:
South winds will take us back to at least around 80°. But, these south winds appear to be different. They will be coming from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing humidity ahead of a storm system. Yes, a storm system.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY (10/18-10/20):
This is when we have our next chance of rain! We are increasingly confident there will be a storm system. We are still not confident on how the rain pattern will set up. But, stay tuned! Rain is less than 10 days away.
Have a great weekend.
Stay healthy.
