Good Sunday, bloggers —
We are tracking two systems that will increase our chance of rain and thunderstorms.
The first will move through Sunday from the western Plains.
The second is the remnants of what was a Category 5 hurricane, Beryl.
Beryl started in the western Atlantic Ocean a week ago Friday. It then tracked west into the Caribbean Sea, where it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in recorded history last Tuesday, July 2.
It then slowly weakened to a category 2/3 before it hit the Yucatan peninsula Thursday night-Friday.
It weakened further to a tropical storm on Saturday as it went over the Yucatan. Now, it is still a tropical storm as of 8 a.m.
It may become a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall tonight around Galveston, Texas.
Then, Monday through Thursday, it will track north then northeast to the Great Lakes. That track takes it through Missouri on Tuesday.
KC is only 150-200 miles west of the cone. As is, we would get grazed by the western edge.
The model shown below is a bit farther west.
On the Powercast big picture, you can see the rain shield track from northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Monday afternoon to Missouri by Tuesday morning.
Let's go through this.
TODAY (NOON-9 PM):
Areas of showers and thunderstorms are likely between noon and 9 p.m. We are not expecting severe weather, but some thunderstorms may contain a brief 30-50 mph wind gust.
Any thunderstorm can produce brief flash flooding as it won't take much with our saturated ground.
The rain and thunderstorms on the map below may be more widespread looking than what will occur — something to watch.
Highs today will be around 80°. In thunderstorms, temperatures will drop to the low 70s, perhaps even the upper 60s at times.
TONIGHT (AFTER 9 PM):
The showers and thunderstorms will decrease. By morning, it will be mostly dry with a slight chance for a few lingering showers and thunderstorms.
Lows will be in the 60s.
MONDAY:
It will be partly cloudy, warm and humid with highs 80°-85°. Notice the speckled clouds. Those are lots of cumulus clouds.
Some may become small cumulonimbus clouds. So, yes, there is a chance to see a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms pop up.
TUESDAY:
This is the wild card. Data has the western edge of Beryl's remnants into eastern Kansas.
This would mean Tuesday would see highs in the 70s with rain, heavy at times. This could easily shift 50-100 miles east as other models are showing.
There has been a trend west on all of the data.
Let's see what it looks like tomorrow. At this time, we will lean with a slightly more east track.
RAINFALL FORECAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS:
Based on the thinking that the remnants of Beryl will track farther east, we will see a long band of 2"-5" of rain from southeast Texas to eastern Missouri to the Great Lakes.
Some locations may see 5"-8" from Beryl, plus other thunderstorms.
You can clearly see this on the map below.
When we zoom in to our area, you can see the main heavy rain band from Beryl from Springfield, Missouri, to Columbia, Missouri, to Chicago.
We are in the .25"-1" area which includes rain, thunderstorms from mostly today and a little on Tuesday.
If we get showers and thunderstorms today only, with no Beryl remnants, then most locations will see .25"-1" with a few locations seeing 1"-2".
Other locations will see under .25" or even nothing.
Have a great week ahead.
Stay healthy.
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