Good Sunday bloggers,
We are tracking a series of weather changes before we get to April. Let's go through this.
TODAY:
It was a split screen this morning as off to the east we had a beautiful sunrise, while off to the west we had dark clouds.
The clouds to the west were producing snow, graupel (cross between snow and sleet) and sleet. However, most of the precipitation was not reaching the ground. Snowflakes, graupel and ice pellets were reported at Topeka, Lawrence and Olathe. Even if much of the snow was reaching the ground, roads would be damp to wet.
The radar at 7:30 a.m. Sunday showed a long, thin band of snow from Harrisonville, Missouri, to near Rapid City, South Dakota. It was tracking southeast as we are in northwest flow. Again, 90% of the precipitation on the radar was not reaching the ground. It was evaporating on the way down due to low level dry air.
Highs today will reach the 40s as we see more clouds and the periods of snowflakes, graupel, ice pellets and rain drops. A front is stalled well to our west and south with 70s and 80s in Texas.
MONDAY:
We will see periods of clouds as the front to the south and west heads this way as a warm front. We will see highs around 60° with little to no precipitation as moisture is limited. The wind will be east to southeast at 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY:
The front will surge past us, putting us firmly in the warmer air with highs in the 70s. It will be windy with south winds gusting to 40 mph. A storm system will be moving into the western USA, creating a surface low in Nebraska. The warm front, a cold front and dry line will be emanating from the surface low. That is called the "triple point." When we see this any time of year, especially during the Spring, the first thing that pops into the mind of a meteorologist is...severe weather.
If severe thunderstorms were to form, they would form near the "triple point" along the warm front and dry line. In this case, there are two limiting factors. One, the amount of moisture from the "Gulf of Mexico" is limited and two, the storm is in a reorganizing phase on Tuesday.
TUESDAY 4-11 PM:
This is the period when we would look for severe weather near the "triple point", warm front and dry line. You can see there is not much, just scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms at 4 p.m.
4 p.m.:
11 p.m.:
We do see development in Oklahoma Tuesday night as this is where the storm is getting its act together.
WEDNESDAY MORNING:
We are getting into rain and thunderstorms as the storm system is becoming more organized, but we are on the northern edge. This would be non-severe thunderstorms with rain as colder air is moving in. If there is any severe weather Wednesday morning, it would be south of I-44. The severe threat is lowest in any location during the morning as the heat of the day, which fuels severe weather, is at a minimum.
Our temperatures would fall from the 50s and 60s to 40s.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
The storm system has assumed a more classic comma shape as it is fully organized. We are in the cold and rainy comma head as the severe weather increases along and east of the Mississippi river. Our temperatures will be in the 40s.
Now, all this being said, we still have to watch this closely as it is never set two-four days in advance.
We know how to time it here at KSHB41. Our severe weather special, "Surviving the Storm", airs at 6:30 p.m. on KSHB 41 News.
Stay with KSHB41 and we'll keep you advised.
Have a great week and stay healthy.
