KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Monday Bloggers -
Let's get right to it, we've got severe weather in our forecast for tomorrow, Tuesday April 4, so here's the break down.
⦁ Wind: strong winds will surround discrete thunderstorms cells with round 1, straight line winds possible as cold front passes in round 2, overall windy conditions are expected as baseline
⦁ Hail: large hail possible with round 1, low end severe hail possible with round 2
⦁ Flooding: Minimal risk, brief and heavy rain is possible as the cold front passes with round 2
⦁ Tornado: large and strong tornadoes will be possible in round 1, more QLCS quick spin up style tornadoes possible in round 2
ROUND 1: Noon to 4 p.m.
Confidence is MEDIUM with Round 1. Convective models are struggling to come together, think about it like this... we've got a pot of water on the stove and the bubbles will boil up eventually we just can't quite pin point the fine tuned details of each and every bubble. That pot of water is our initialization zone and we are watching for those storms to occur in and around KC toward the Ozarks (area circled in orange). those storms will then lift and move NE rapidly heading toward central Missouri and southern Iowa. The afternoon stuff, honestly, may be a sit and watch satellite and radar to see where development is happening and then watch radar to see which storms are showing supercell development. BUT uncertainty aside, the set up is extremely favorable for strong tornadoes and large hail with any supercells that do form. Storms that DO form will be extremely dangerous. So will we break the cap in and around Kansas City or will that happen closer to Iowa? You can bet we've got our entire weather team watching this!
Round 2: 10 p.m. to 2 a.m.
Confidence is HIGH with round 2. The cold front is starting to show signs of overtaking the dry line, which means we could see a cold front that behaves like a dry line. While the main threats will be focused on straight line winds this could turn into more of a QLCS structure quickly with brief spin up tornadoes possible. Expect brief and heavy rain, strong winds as a line of storms forms just south of I-35 in Kansas and moves and growth Northeast through central Missouri.
We're staffed to track all these events so make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts, forecast updates and follow @KSHB41 and the team on social media. Stay aware and safe Tuesday.
