KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Monday, bloggers —
The sun was rising through smoke from wildfires in western Canada. That is where the red hue is coming from.
The sun will shine bright through the smoke all day, allowing us to warm up to the mid and upper-90s.
We are in a heat advisory for one more day.
Now, on the edge of the heat, we are tracking severe thunderstorms. The highest threat of severe weather, level 3 of 5, is located from eastern Iowa to northern Illinois and northern Indiana.
The sirens went off in downtown Chicago last night. There was not a tornado, but there was damaging winds.
It looks like another evening/night of severe weather in Chicagoland.
The level 2 of 5 creeps into northeast Missouri as the main severe thunderstorms may clip those areas.
We are in a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather as a few thunderstorms may form this evening. If they do, they would have 60 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. The chance is 10% of any thunderstorms.
The heat is about to be in retreat as a cold front arrives Tuesday-Wednesday. Then, the high heat may stay away for a while as we go into an interesting July weather pattern.
Let's go through all of this.
TODAY:
We will see highs in the mid to upper-90s with heat index values 100°-110°.
The wind will be from the south-southwest at 15-25 mph. This may help a tiny bit, but it will be more like having a fan in a sauna.
TONIGHT:
We will be on the southwest edge of the bigger thunderstorm event across Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. This means we may see scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight.
The severe threat is very low with these scattered thunderstorms. Lows will be in the low to mid-70s.
TUESDAY:
After morning scattered showers and thunderstorms, it will be partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s with the humidity still high. The wind will be light northeast (5-15 mph) as the main front is still north along I-80.
TUESDAY NIGHT:
The chance of rain and thunderstorms increases after 10 p.m. as we get in on the northeast edge of a bigger complex of thunderstorms tracking southeast across southwest Kansas.
The severe threat with this is higher in the western Plains as most of this rain/thunderstorm activity is behind the front in our area.
Also, there is a chance this area of rain and thunderstorms may track farther south.
WEDNESDAY MORNING:
Any rain and thunderstorms will exit as lows drop to the 60s.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:
It will become a nice afternoon as we see a decrease in the clouds and humidity. Highs will be in the low 80s.
There is a chance highs stay in the upper-70s if there are more clouds as this data shows.
The wind will be northeast at 10-20 mph, which will bring in lower humidity.
RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-WEDNESDAY:
There will be a 100-mile-wide west-east band where .50"-1" of rain occurs. There will be some locations in the band that see 1"-2" of rain.
Rainfall will be a trace to .50" north and south of the band. This band will likely occur along and south of I-70.
It could still shift 50-100 miles north or south. If there is a shift, it would most likely be south.
There are not too many locations that need rain. But if you miss the rain, there are numerous chances Sunday into next week. It may start Saturday.
We will talk more about this in the coming days, but this is the forecast upper-level flow for Sunday, July 21.
The main jet stream is retreated way north as it should be this time of year. That normally means we are in for a long stretch of typical summer heat with a few thunderstorm chances.
However, there are growing signs this is not the case.
The upper-level high "heat wave creating machine" will be in the western U.S. with an extension into western Canada.
A second upper-level high will extend into the southeast U.S., sometimes called the "Bermuda high."
We are in between the two upper-level highs where we find an upper-level low, the opposite of an upper-level high.
This upper low is closed off from the main flow, which means it is barely moving. This puts us in an area where we will see daily chances of rain and thunderstorms, with little severe threat.
This also means we will see many days with highs 75°-85° and lows in the 60s.
Once the heat exits Tuesday, there are no big signs it will come back for 10-14 days. That takes us to almost August.
Have a great week ahead.
Stay healthy.
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