Good morning bloggers,
While parts of Florida are cleaning up and recovering from the devastating major hurricane Ian, Kansas City is in need of rain. It has been getting drier. Look at the rainfall total since July 1:
This dry weather has caused many trees to be drought stressed and have fall color early. What is going on?
The LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle) was named by you! Yes, back in 2002 when we started this blog we started sharing my hypothesis with you. With all of the incredible accuracy and showcasing of how the pattern was cycling and predictable, a few of you called it the GRC, and then the next day you named it the LRC. And, it has stuck. The rest of the world will be learning more about this in the next few years.
The LRC sets up each year and we usually identify the first day of the unique pattern to happen near the end of the first week of October. Well, this is good news, because that means we are still in this same pattern that produced a long dry spell during the late fall into early winter. That same pattern has ended extremely dry.
So, why is this good news? Because we are about to move into a pattern that has never happened in the history of the world. Every year is unique. Now, it could be another dry pattern. Or it could be a wet and stormy pattern. We just do not know yet. This is one of the many beautiful aspects of the LRC. We will learn a lot in the next two months.
Last month, just two weeks ago, it was 99° on two consecutive days. Here are the September stats:
A major change is showing up on the European and GFS models. These are highly unreliable models, and here is an example:
I am watching the Today Show this morning and they are seriously suggesting they didn't have enough warning for this Major Hurricane Ian disaster. The biggest challenge is that the storm track shifted south to Fort Myers. The models, shown above, had many solutions that threw off the National Hurricane Center and other forecast outlets. This was a threat from the LRC from 10-months earlier, and we predicted this possible farther track that far out.
Two to three days before the hurricane track shifted over Fort Myers, it did appear from the models that it would track closer to Tampa. This is still close enough for a little wobble on the track to shift south and it did. There is an LRC solution to these hurricanes and this is what I am working on with my company Weather 20/20, LLC. Here is the link to my LinkedIn page: Hurricane Ian Predicted
The new weather pattern that we will be experiencing for the next year, the 2022-2023 LRC, is setting up this week. And, suddenly we have a huge change showing up around day 10 on these error filled models:
American Model (240 Hours) Valid Wednesday Night 1 AM October 13:
European Model (240 Hours Valid 7 PM October 12:
These models show something very different happening in these next 10 days. What does this mean? Well, it is way too early to tell as we are still in the transition from last year's pattern to next year's pattern.
For now, in Kansas City we get to experience more incredible weather with a change due in Thursday night with a strong cold front. More on these changes in the weather pattern will be discussed on KSHB 41 News today and tonight.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience and spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog.
Have a great start to the work week,
Gary
