Good morning bloggers,
It's Friday! We are tracking a line of strong to severe thunderstorms on this Friday morning. There are some questions six hours before they arrive:
- The line is currently strong and organizing. How will this evolve in the next six hours?
- Looking at this first storm track, posted below, there is a severe thunderstorm warning in that yellow polygon. That area of thunderstorms is moving almost due south. This is the part of the line that may surge our way. The big question will be: Could the rain cooled air spread out ahead of the thunderstorms. If that happens, then the thunderstorms may weaken and fall apart for a while. This is a big question that may have an answer in the next couple of hours.
- Some of the models break it up, and then the line redevelops after it misses KC. I don't favor this solution, but we will be monitoring for any evidence of weakening. As of 7:45 AM, it was not weakening, and it was in fact strengthening at the moment.
- There will be some heat and high humidity to feed the thunderstorms as fuel. So, if they hold together, the chance of damaging winds would increase. The question will be where will the damaging wind risk target? We will learn more before noon as this evolves.
This track above shows the complex of thunderstorms at 7:19 AM. I will update this blog with a new track at 8:19 AM or one hour after this first track to see how it changes. Check back in soon for this update.
8:24 AM Track:
The area of thunderstorms has already evolved in the past hour. This is a constantly changing, evolving line of thunderstorms. The new track is shown above. We will update with a new track by 10:30 AM.
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our risk of severe thunderstorms to level 3 out of 5:
10:30 AM Updated Track:
The above track is updated as of 10:41 AM. I have some concerns that it may weaken. So, look for another update around 12:30 PM.
Update at 12:30 PM:
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the KC metro area. Here is the 12:45 PM radar update. The main risk is damaging winds. We will do live cut-ins every 30 minutes on 41 Action News as this line approaches!
After this line moves through, the weekend is looking like a hot one, but not as hot as yesterday and today. It will be slightly cooler behind this system. We will update that weekend forecast on 41 Action News as the new data rolls in.
Thank you for sharing in this weather experience & spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing with Gary blog. Have a great Friday!
Gary
