KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good morning bloggers,
We wake up to a great day in Kansas City today. There are a few clouds streaming overhead and it will be a fairly chilly day, but just not as cold as the past couple of days. There are some huge changes in our weather pattern taking place in the next week with a possible winter storm for KC around Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is also a major storm forming in the eastern United States and those meteorologists have a very difficult forecast for this storm.
We are monitoring two sources of energy for the development of strong storm systems. The storm that is targeting much of the east coast is only a day or two away from blowing up into this storm system. It doesn't make it any easier of a forecast. How this storm forms will decide whether or not New York City has very little snow or a massively impacting winter storm. Boston is more certain to have snow, but could they have just a few inches or two feet? And, in Kansas City, we have the usual problems as the energy for our storm is still forming out over western Alaska tomorrow night which leaves it a bit suspect at this time.
The American Model has 1" of snow in NYC while the European Model has so much more. Take a look:
Look at KC, Boston, and New York City.
- The American model has 5.3" of snow in KC and the Euro has over one foot of snow in KC. This is a model prediction for next weeks storm.
- The American model has 1" of snow in New York City and the Euro has 8" of snow there
- The American model has 8" of snow in Boston, while the Euro has 26" of snow
The American model has had a better track record with these storm systems this winter. So, I lean in that direction. But, it is far from certain and the meteorologists in New York and Boston have a huge challenge.
This map above shows the GFS model (American model) valid at 1 PM eastern time on Saturday. This model has the storm forming only slightly farther east over the Atlantic Ocean. If it is at all right, then only 1" or less would fall in Central Park, New York. But, what if it is just a "blip" off, and the European Model is more correct. The impacts would be extremely different. So, just like back here in KC, they have another two days to monitor these models and see if they trend snowier or drier.
Back home in KC, take a look at the overnight GFS model for our area:
This pink/purple area shows freezing rain and sleet with snow in the blue. This map above is valid at midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. I will be waiting on today's model runs before I go in-depth into this possible winter storm in our area. All of the models are showing this, and as shown above, the Euro model has a foot of snow here in KC. So, it has our attention.
Kansas City Weather Time-Line:
- Today: A few periods of clouds mixed with some sunshine. The wind will shift to the north this afternoon. High: 41°
- Tonight: Colder again with wind chills near zero by morning. North winds around 10-15 mph. Low: 16°
- Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 32°
- Saturday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High: 52°
- Sunday: Great weather for the AFC Championship Game. Sunny with a high near 45° at kickoff. Almost no wind for tailgating with a south breeze at around 5-10 mph by the end of the game.
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the weather blog. Have a great Thursday!
Gary
