Good Wednesday bloggers,
We are tracking two main cyclones. The 1st is called a mid-latitude synoptic-scale cyclone, also known as our next storm system. The 2nd is a tropical cyclone, also known as a hurricane.
Before we get to the cyclones, where do we stand on rainfall for the year after the recent beneficial rain? Officially, at KCI, we are now under 5" below average for the year. We knocked off about 2" from the deficit as KCI received 1.89" of rain. Locations south of KC received up to 5" of rain, while locations in northern Missouri received .50"-1.50". Keep in mind all of November averages 2" of rain. We have more rain in the forecast.
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MAJOR HURRICANE RAFAEL:
Rafael has rapidly become a category 3 just before it makes landfall in western Cuba. Western Cuba is mountainous, but there is not much landmass to go over, so it may weaken a bit, but still emerge as a CAT 3 or 2, then become a CAT 3 again shortly after it exits Cuba.
There is some good news. As Rafael tracks northwest into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the coast, it will weaken rapidly as it encounters water temperatures under 80° and dry air gets wrapped into the hurricane. So, hopefully, the Gulf coast will get spared any big issues. Rip tides may be the biggest problem.
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THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM:
Our next system is now settling into the Rockies bringing heavy snow. It will sit there today and Thursday, then track east into the southwest Plains Friday before accelerating northeast towards the Great Lakes this weekend. What does this mean for our area? The answer below.
Today through Friday we will be dry with periods of clouds. We will see more clouds Thursday and Friday. The map below is valid for 7 a.m. Friday. You can see the heavy snow in the southern Rockies with a large area of rain and thunderstorms from western and central Kansas to southwest Texas.
By Friday afternoon the area of rain and thunderstorms will be heading our way as Rafael churns into the Gulf of Mexico.
There is a trend in the data that the area of rain and thunderstorms will shrink as it moves through eastern Kansas and western Missouri later Friday night into early Saturday.
The rain will exit early Saturday making for a decent Saturday afternoon with highs around 60°. Chiefs Sunday is looking very nice with sunshine, a light southwest breeze and temperatures in the 60s.
Look at the snowfall forecast for the mountains of New Mexico and Colorado, 10" to 50"! Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Denver and most lower elevations will see 1" to 6" of snow.
Our Snowflake Sweepstakes continues. It will end when one of our KSHB 41meteorologists measures the first 1" of snow that falls at KSHB 41 on the Plaza. Hint: There is no chance of snow the next 10 days.
You have until 11:59 p.m., Nov. 10 to enter.
You can scan the QR code or go to kshb.com/contests to enter.
So, we know there will be no snow in Kansas City with this system. How much rain? Right now it looks like .10" to 1" of rain. You can see the heavy rain in southwest Kansas to much of central and western Oklahoma.
Dodge City and Garden City in Kansas may see 2"-4" of rain. Keep in mind those cities average 3" of rain total between Nov. 1 and Feb. 28. So, this storm alone is bringing four-months worth of rainfall for this time of year!
On the bigger view you can see the heavy rain into Texas. There are smaller pockets of heavy rain from Louisiana to Kentucky and north Florida to Georgia. This is due to smaller systems and some tropical moisture from Rafael.
Have a great week ahead and weekend.
Stay healthy
