Good Monday bloggers,
We are in an active weather pattern for July. We are in northwest flow which contains numerous thunderstorm producing disturbances. These features are not picked up well by the models and each thunderstorm location and intensity depends on the previous round. So we have to take the forecast on 6-12 hour periods at a time.
Any thunderstorms will have the capability to produce damaging wind and hail. But, none of the thunderstorms look to be as widespread and ferocious as what we experienced Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area in between level 2 of 5 risks with 1 of 5 around us. The level 2 does clip our southern viewing area.
WEATHER TIMELINE:
NOW-MIDNIGHT:
A weak cold front will drift into the area and then stall this afternoon and evening. There are scattered thunderstorms along and behind the front. They are tracking southeast, so we can't take thunderstorms out of the forecast this period. The tendency has for the thunderstorms to weaken as the move southeast. These will probably do the same, but we will watch it. We may see a few thunderstorms around today with a very steamy high in the mid to upper 80s.
Now, to the south it is becoming a different story. An outflow boundary from thunderstorms this morning in southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma and Arkansas has pushed north into a very unstable airmass. Severe thunderstorms are looking increasingly likely to form on this front this afternoon. They will track south and southeast after they form. So, our southern viewing area has a severe threat this afternoon with damaging wind and hail the main threats.
MIDNIGHT-3 AM:
A few thunderstorms are possible around here as a more organized cluster gets going in Nebraska. This cluster will track southeast along the front that will be stalled near here.
TUESDAY 3-10 AM:
This cluster will track southeast into the region. There is a question of how much it will hold together as it arrives. This data has a more scattered solution. There are some models that have it more organized here like it was at 3 AM on this data. See the image above.
Regardless, it looks like a decent chance of rain and thunderstorms 3-10 AM Tuesday. The more organized it is, the higher chance of seeing some damaging wind and hail. But, not as wild as Friday. This would be more like 40-60 mph wind and quarter sized hail. This round could bring more hail than the Friday thunderstorms.
If it is scattered then just a few small locations would receive a 40-60 mph wind and hail threat. Rainfall, will be more like we are used to, low coverage beneficial rain.
We lean with the more widespread solution.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
The morning rain and thunderstorms will leave rain cooled air around, pushing the front south a bit. So, we would see highs in the mid 80s as the high heat gets suppressed to southern Kansas.
The scattered to few thunderstorm threat will resume Tuesday night through early Thursday. Then, it looks mostly dry Friday into the weekend with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. This means the weekend weather is looking pretty nice as it stands now.
RAINFALL FORECAST (TODAY-WEDNESDAY):
If the thunderstorms tomorrow morning remain widespread, they will produce a 30-40 mile wide band of 1"-2" rainfall. This data has it just northeast of KC. The location can shift north or south by 50 miles. Note, this is a different model than what was showed above. The other rainfall is the other scattered activity before and after tomorrow morning.
The silver lining to the severe weather is having seen 2"-4" of rain the last 5 days in many locations. There are areas of 1"-2" as well. And, your rain gauge may read different as these are radar estimates.
Have a great week and stay healthy.
Stay with KSHB41 and we'll keep you advised.
