Good Tuesday night bloggers,
We have a most interesting set up in the Plains as a strong storm system tracks out of the Rockies. A blizzard is occurring in the northern Plains as a severe threat develops to the south, especially east of KC.
At 4 PM there was a strong cold front located in central Kansas. We were around 85° while it was 22° in Valentine, NE. A dry line was located to our west. This separates the warm, dry air from the warm and moist air. A "cap" has been preventing thunderstorms from forming this afternoon. This is a warm layer aloft keeping a lid on the lower atmosphere, in other words a more stable environment.
The cold front will be merging with the dry line around 7 PM. This is when a line of thunderstorms will rapidly form along the strong cold front. Initially, out west they will have a severe weather threat with wind, hail and possibly a tornado.
But, something interesting will happen to lower the severe threat as the thunderstorms approach. It looks like the cold front may out run the line of thunderstorms. So, that puts the line of thunderstorms behind the front in the colder air.
This image at midnight shows KC in the middle of the thunderstorms, but it is 45°. So, if the thunderstorms end up in the colder air that reduces the severe threat. Hail and strong winds are still possible in this scenario with really no tornado threat. Now, that being said, if any thunderstorm forms on the front or just ahead of it, then the severe threat greatly increases for those cells. We will be watching this closely.
So here is the weather timeline for tonight:
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for this line with wind and hail the main threats.
By morning it will be windy and cold with wind chill values in the teens and 20s. But, by afternoon the sun will be out with highs in the 50s. Highs return to the 70s by Friday and should stay there for Easter.
Have a great night and rest of your week.
Stay weather aware.
