Good Tuesday bloggers,
It is always an interesting forecast in our area.
There is a cold front approaching that is producing an 1100-mile-long line of thunderstorms from southwest Kansas to southern Canada.
The forecast northwest of Kansas City is for a 100% chance of thunderstorms.
The forecast about 50 miles southeast of Kansas City is for a 0% chance of thunderstorms.
And yes, you guessed it, we are in the zone where there is a 50% chance of thunderstorms.
Let's go through this.
Watches and warnings as of 4 p.m:
There is a severe thunderstorm watch from southwest Kansas to northwest Iowa.
Then, there is a tornado watch for most of Minnesota.
The cold front was located right where the watches have been issued.
There is a thin line of thunderstorms along the front.
Temperatures are in the 70s and 60s west of the front — some nice heat relief. We may get a brief taste of that, but likely not a reprieve from the humidity.
Tonight (now-midnight):
The line will enter northwest Missouri around 8-9 p.m. while we see periods of clouds with temperatures in the low 80s, high humidity and a decreasing wind.
By midnight, there are growing indications that the thunderstorms will make it to I-35 as they decrease in coverage and intensity.
Temperatures will drop to around 70 degrees in the rain.
These thunderstorms will contain very heavy downpours, possible brief flash flooding, and frequent lightning.
Winds may gust to 20-40 mph in some of the thunderstorms.
If there is any severe weather, it would be in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas with a few wind gusts 40-60 mph.
Wednesday (midnight 7 a.m.):
The thunderstorms will track northeast and mostly fall apart. So, a few showers and thunderstorms may be around for the morning rush hour with a low around 70.
WEDNESDAY (7 a.m to 1 p.m.):
New scattered showers and thunderstorms may form as the front is in the area.
If the clouds are thick and we see more than a thunderstorm or two, we may see highs 75-80.
Right now we are going 80-85. The humidity will remain as the front is slowly falling apart.
Wednesday (1-8 p.m):
Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. The coverage is still a question.
Regardless of coverage, the clouds and any thunderstorms will make it only so far east.
Clinton and Sedalia will be near 90 with areas in the clouds seeing highs in the 70s and 80s. The eastward extent of the clouds is still a question.
Wednesday (After 8-10 p.m.):
Most showers and thunderstorms will dissipate so that by Thursday morning we have lots of clouds with lows around 70.
The front falls apart, so Thursday-Saturday will see highs back to around 90 with high humidity and little chance of rain.
A new cold front is due in Saturday night. It may bring some thunderstorms and a brief relief from highs around 90.
Rainfall forecast tonight-Wednesday:
A widespread band of two to four inches of rain is possible from south central to northeast Kansas.
Once the thunderstorms get to eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri, the coverage will be decreasing.
So, some yards and farms may see over two inches of rain while others see two drops.
The map below depicts the type of rainfall pattern we will experience tonight and Wednesday, but the specific locations of the haves and have nots of the heavy rain take with a grain of salt.
It depends on where the hard to predict thunderstorms occur.
Now, east of a line, give or take 25-50 miles, from Emporia, Kansas, to Chillicothe, Missouri, the chance is much less to see any meaningful rain.
Weather forecast summary:
Have a great rest of your week.
Stay healthy.
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