KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Friday bloggers,
The active weather pattern we have been talking about for days is here. We have had two-three rounds of rain and non-severe thunderstorms so far. Now, we turn our attention to two-three rounds of rain and potentially severe thunderstorms.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS:
LATER TODAY-TONIGHT:
We are in a level 3 of 5 risk. It extends from the state line to north of Omaha. All modes of severe weather are possible. But, the southern end of the level 3 around here has much more uncertainty than to the north.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
We are in another level 3 of 5 risk where all modes of severe weather are possible. This one has us much more concerned than the one today.
TODAY (4-5 P.M.):
We will be watching a dry line approach. If we are going to see severe thunderstorms they will form with scattered coverage on the dry line, become supercells, and then track northeast towards our area.
TODAY (5-8 P.M.):
The severe thunderstorms on this data are in far northwest Missouri where the dry line is surging northeast. The thunderstorms to the southeast are most likely not severe as temperatures there are in the low 60s.
The dry line in eastern Kansas is stalling.
TONIGHT (8-10 P.M.):
The severe thunderstorms are up in Iowa as the dry line is now moving west. Stalling then westward moving dry lines do limit severe thunderstorm development.
So, we have a 30% chance in KC for the severe thunderstorms and a 60% in far northwest Missouri to far northeast Kansas.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
It will be a calm and humid morning. Then, heavy to severe thunderstorms will form during the afternoon from central Kansas to north Texas along the dry line that retreated all the way west to western Kansas.
The thunderstorm threat will increase in our area after 4 p.m. These thunderstorms will be capable of all severe weather modes.
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT:
Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms will line up from north Texas to northern Missouri around I-35. This will evolve into more of a flash flood threat, but damaging winds and tornadoes will still be possible. Yes, a very stormy Saturday night.
SUNDAY MORNING:
The rain and thunderstorms will move off to the east as the main system is still lurking to the west.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
The main severe threat will be from northeast Texas to central Illinois. We may see some new showers and thunderstorms, but the severe threat is low as the Saturday night-Sunday morning thunderstorms stabilized the atmosphere some.
RAINFALL FORECAST TODAY-SUNDAY:
There is going to be a zone of 3"-6" of rain. This data shows it around KC. This location of the 3"-6" rainfall is not set yet. It depends on where the thunderstorms train the most, meaning where the thunderstorms track over the same locations for several hours.
This rain is on top of what we have seen so far.
These are radar estimated rainfall totals, so your rain gauge may read different. 1"-2" of rain is common around KC with some locations seeing 3"-3.50" of rain.
WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY:
Stay with KSHB 41 and we'll keep you advised on all of this wild weather.
Have a great weekend.
Stay weather aware and healthy.
