Good Red Wednesday bloggers —
As we have been saying in past blogs, there is 1 main rain and thunderstorm chance the next 7-10 days. That chance is Thursday and mostly during the evening and night. Yes, during the Chiefs game. Rain is one thing, but it is lightning that will cause issues.
Let's go through this.
Thursday (7 a.m. to noon):
It will be dry with temperatures warming fast to the mid and upper 80s.
The humidity will be creeping up as well.
Scattered thunderstorms will be found across Nebraska, Iowa and western Kansas.
Thursday (Noon to 3 p.m):
Temperatures will likely reach 90 degrees as the humidity becomes noticeable.
Scattered thunderstorms will start forming on a cold front from southwest Kansas to southeast Iowa, just northwest of KC.
Thursday (3 to 7 p.m):
The zone of scattered showers and thunderstorms will now be extending through the KC area.
This of course is tailgating to kickoff time. In rain areas temperatures will drop to the 70s.
Any thunderstorms will bring a 5-10 minute heavy downpour and possibly a brief 20-40 mph wind gust.
Thursday (7 to 11 p.m):
This is is during the game, and, incredibly the zone of scattered showers and thunderstorms is drifting slowly across the area.
Thursday (11 p.m. to Friday 7 a.m):
The zone of scattered showers and thunderstorms shifts south to I-44. We are back to nice weather with lows around 60 degrees.
Friday afternoon:
It will be a nice day with highs in the 70s and lower humidity.
There is another way to look at the placement of the thunderstorms on a model. That is looking at the total rainfall forecast.
The higher amounts in this situation would indicate a thunderstorm, see below.
Rainfall forecast big picture:
You can see the zone of thunderstorms flares up to its maximum from northwest Oklahoma to eastern Kansas to central Missouri, right over the I-70 corridor.
The NFL lightning rule to pause a game is:
"Teams will play through the rain and wind, but if there's lightning within an eight-mile radius of the stadium, the game is immediately paused for a 30-minute weather delay."
So, a thunderstorm has to be more than eight miles away to prevent a pause in the game.
When you look at the big picture, it is hard to tell.
Rainfall forecast mid view:
You can see there are small areas that could see 1-2 inches, to .50-1 inch, to less than .10 inches, to nothing.
The areas that see 1-2 inches or .50-1 inches are the areas that most likely will see thunderstorms.
Anything less it is likely a shower, but does not mean lightning is more than eight miles away.
Rainfall forecast zoomed in:
So, based on this data it shows the heaviest not at Arrowhead. But, there is .10 -.50 inches.
And, the heavier rainfall amounts are literally eight miles away.
The data above came out Tuesday night.
Here is the latest data that just came out Wednesday morning from the same model.
So, based on all this, what is the bottom line?
As is, there is a real chance of a lightning delay.
BUT, this is not set yet as predicting the location of specific scattered thunderstorms is impossible more than one hour in advance.
We know where the bigger zone will be located several days ahead of time, but knowing the location of a specific thunderstorm within the zone is impossible more than one hour out.
Also, keep in mind — any area that sees a thunderstorm may experience it for 10-15 minute before it moves on or falls apart.
Also, the thunderstorm could occur during tailgating and not the game. Or, even after the game.
So, we will have to play this by ear and hope for the best. Keep and eye to the sky!
There are many locations that need rain, but why is the one main chance occur on game day between the start of tailgating and the end of the game?
This is our latest thinking. The chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be increasing tomorrow afternoon and evening.
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
Here is a quick look at the next 10 days.
Upper level flow Thursday:
A trough will be swinging through the Great Lakes bringing the cold front to our area.
The southern edge of the trough will feature a small disturbance that is hard to see on this map.
The disturbance + front are the reason for the scattered thunderstorms.
Upper level flow Sunday, 9/8:
The trough is tracking through the Great Lakes putting our region in a dry and cooler north flow.
Upper level flow next Saturday, 9/14:
Now, the upper level high, "heat wave creating machine," is located in the southwest plains extending north to the Great Lakes.
This a mainly dry weather pattern with the chance to see hot weather move back in next week. It may stay just west, but I bet we see 2-3 days in the 90s.
Have a great week
Stay healthy
GO CHIEFS!
—
