KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Good Tuesday bloggers,
The fall change we have been talking about is 2-3 days away depending if you think highs in the 70s or 60s is more like fall. Here is the latest.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
Severe thunderstorms will form in the western Plains this afternoon along the first of two cold fronts. There is now a level 3 of 5 risk in western Kansas. This is the area where seeing a tornado is highest. It is just 5% of seeing a tornado within 25 miles of any location. That is low, but keep in mind most days are 0%.
We will see lots of clouds with a south breeze 10-25 mph, moderate humidity and highs in the mid to upper 80s.
WEDNESDAY (MIDNIGHT to 5 a.m.):
The severe thunderstorms will track east and decrease in coverage and intensity. So, when they move through our region between midnight an 5 a.m., we will see non-severe scattered thunderstorms with showers.
WEDNESDAY:
The first front will arrive and slow down. So, we will see lots of clouds and humidity with highs 75-80. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible. It is slowing down as a new wave of energy will be tracking north along the front from the southern Plains.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
This wave of energy will generate new showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. The main severe threat is across the southern Plains. The west edge of the new rain and thunderstorms will be around Interstate 35. So, yes, KC is on the edge as usual.
THURSDAY:
This will be a nice day as the first front crosses the Mississippi River taking the clouds, rain and thunderstorms with it. The second front will arrive during the afternoon. So, we will see sunshine and highs back to 75-80 with lower humidity. There will be a west-southwest breeze at 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY:
Now, this day is going to really feel like fall as the second front tracks south of Interstate 44. We will see highs in the low 60s with a northwest wind at 15-25 mph. A disturbance tracking southeast behind the front will bring an area of clouds and some light rain. If we get into that light rain. Highs may be in the 50s, or briefly low 60s before falling. It depends on the timing and extent of the clouds and light rain.
SATURDAY MORNING:
Oh my! Lows will drop to 35-40! There may be patchy frost, especially if it is 2-3 degrees colder. What a change.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:
This will be a great day to head to the Pumpkin Patch. It will be sunny and crisp with a light wind. Highs will be in the low 60s.
RAINFALL FORECAST:
OK, now the age old question. How much rain are we going to see?
Unfortunately, for those who have grass seed and fertilizer down, it looks like the heaviest rain will do its usual thing. That is the heaviest will go around us. The second wave of energy may bring 2"-6" of rain from Texas and Oklahoma to southern Missouri.
The data has been consistent on our area seeing around .25" north of .25"-.75" south. This is not nearly enough rain for grass seed and barely enough for most fertilizers.
The only way we see more rain is if the thunderstorms to the west tonight hold together longer and/or the second wave of rain Wednesday night-early Thursday tracks a bit farther north. In those cases we could double the amounts shown below. We have low confidence in that.
Have a great rest of your week
Stay healthy
