Good Wednesday bloggers,
We continue to track the chance of thunderstorms tonight. It has been a tough forecast from the start as our computer data has not been doing very well, even one hour out. We are now getting a clearer picture of how things will evolve now that we have seen how the morning thunderstorms have played out. That being said, nothing is totally set yet.
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This is the temperature set up at 1 p.m. Wednesday. It was 69° in Chillicothe to 91° in Ottawa. This is 100% due to the rain cooled air from morning thunderstorms that tracked across northern Missouri. Rainfall was a beneficial .25" to 1". This has set up the main outflow boundary south of KC.
It is this boundary and a weak cold front from the northwest and a disturbance in the upper levels tracking east-southeast from the western Plains that will create new thunderstorms.
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:
Locations along and south of I-70 are in a level 3 of 5 risk with a level 2 of 5 elsewhere. Level 1 of 5 is across far northwest Missouri where thunderstorms are least likely.
The main threats are damaging wind and hail 1" or higher in diameter. The tornado threat is very low, but not zero.
WEATHER TIMELINE:
WEDNESDAY 4 PM:
It looks like the rain cooled air outflow boundary will drift north as the hotter air drifts north. The colors represent temperatures 90° or higher.
WEDNESDAY 6-8 PM:
This is when we expect the first thunderstorms to form. You can see a fairly large thunderstorm forming west of Topeka 6-8 PM.
WEDNESDAY 7 PM-MIDNIGHT:
This the time frame when we expect the thunderstorms to increase along and south of I-70. They will then track east and then southeast. They will most likely be scattered initially before becoming and MCS (Mesoscale Convective Complex). Basically an MCS is a large complex of rain and thunderstorms.
This run of data has the thunderstorms becoming more widespread before they track southeast of KC.
THURSDAY MIDNIGHT-7 AM:
The I-70 corridor may see lingering thunderstorms as a fully formed MCS tracks into southern Missouri.
BY 7 AM the MCS will be heading into Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma.
Thursday will become a decent summer day with little chance of rain and highs around 90°.
RAINFALL FORECAST:
We need the rain and it would be nice to not have to deal with severe weather. But, that is not the case today.
This rainfall forecast tells the story of the rain layout the best.
The best chance of rain will be from around I-70 and south. And, within the rain area, some locations may see around 2" of rain, while others see nothing to 0.30"
You can see this data is modeling 2.4" of rain northwest of Olathe to 0.30" south of Olathe, 18 miles apart. The exact location of the heaviest rain is not set, but you get the idea that some will see very heavy rain while others don't get much.
The good news is that if your yard or farm does not get the rain it needs tonight there are 3-4 more chances of rain and thunderstorms the next 7-10 days.
The next chance is Friday. This too may have a damaging wind threat. This has the timing at 8 PM Friday, but that is not set yet either.
FORECAST SUMMARY:
The main threat for thunderstorms in KC is between 7 PM and midnight. The thunderstorms may contain large hail and damaging winds.
Keep and eye to the sky and stay with KSHB41 and we'll keep you advised.
Have a great rest of your week and stay healthy.
