Good Wednesday, bloggers —
The first three weeks of July have been much cooler than average. As of today, July 24, we are sitting at the 13th coolest July on record.
Records began in 1888 — 136 years ago.
With one week left, we can't continue with below-average temperatures forever during the hottest time of year? Or can we?
Our average high/low between July 16 and Aug. 7 is 89°/68°-69°.
In the calendar below, you can see how many days are below average — 17.
On the 10th, we hit the high right on the average — 88°.
Only five days have been above average, and no days were 95° or higher.
So, there is talk of heat next week as we wrap up July, but it is not a slam dunk.
Let's go through this.
In order to see how the weather will act on the surface, we have to look about 18,000 feet up.
This is where we can see the upper-level flow and where the storm systems and the upper-level highs (A.K.A: heat wave-creating machines, heat domes) are located. These features affect what goes on at the surface.
TODAY:
The upper-level high is over the southwest, and that is where highs have been 100°-120°!
We are in a light north flow aloft. This has brought the smoke south from the western Canadian wildfires, making it hazy.
This flow has small embedded systems that each produce a few showers/t-storms.
There is a weak upper-low forming over Texas that we will talk about below.
There is a trough tracking across the Great Lakes. This is sending a cold front slowly south and southwest toward us.
These are sometimes referred to as "back door" cold fronts as they move in from the northeast and not the typical west or northwest, which is the "front door."
This was the setup around noon today.
We will see highs in the mid to upper 80s, but cumulus clouds will stop the warm-up. We may see isolated showers and thunderstorms form later this afternoon and evening.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
The upper-level flow changes quite a bit by Friday.
The Great Lakes trough moves into the north Atlantic Ocean, being replaced by a ridge with a small and weak upper-level high over Iowa.
The southwest heat dome retreats as a new one forms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, an upper-level low takes shape over Texas.
At the surface Thursday, the back door front is stalling to out northeast. Highs are 75°-80° north of this front.
We will be near 90° while the heat increases across the western Plains. A few showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of the front.
The surface map for Friday is similar to Thursday. The front is stalled and about to retreat and weaken since the trough that pushed it south races into the north Atlantic.
This means Friday is another day with highs around 90° along with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
If you are going to get a shower/thunderstorm today through Friday, it will have to form overhead as they last 10 minutes, are small and barely move.
Also, this means today through Friday will count as average or 1° above/below average on highs. The lows will be around 70°, so same for the lows.
SATURDAY:
The low from Texas tracks straight north near KC as the heat dome in the eastern Gulf of Mexico builds north into the Midwest.
The southwest heat dome remains suppressed deep in the southwest as the jet stream dips into the western U.S.
The upper-level flow from the south may very well push the smoke back north. So, we may get a few days with a sky without the smoky haze.
At the surface, this means we will have a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with more coverage than what we have been seeing.
The widespread rain and thunderstorms may stay across eastern Missouri where there is deeper moisture.
Highs will be in the low to mid-80s due to clouds and areas of rain. Temperatures will drop to the 70s in rain and thunderstorm areas.
The heat gets pushed back to the west.
SUNDAY-NEXT WEEK:
The upper low over KC Saturday races away as the building heat dome to the east tracks west into the southern Plains.
The jet stream with thunderstorm-producing systems will track north of the dome. This will create a sharp contrast between cooler with thunderstorms and hot with no thunderstorms.
As usual, we are on the edge, but there is a trend to us being in the cooler thunderstorm zone. So, if this is the case, our 13th coolest July will stay on the cooler side.
Before we make a call on having no big heat next week, we could still see highs 90°-95° with high humidity and thunderstorms every 1-2 days.
And, we could still be included in the hot and dry weather.
We will know more in the next few days.
Have a great rest of your week and weekend.
Stay healthy.
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