Smartphones, laptops, desktops, and even TVs; all of these can get you in touch with the World Wide Web.
We live for the Internet these days, and it's always right there waiting for us. Now it doesn't matter where you live or what you do for a living; all of us want to know what the weather is going to do the next day (or week/month/year).
Thanks to the Internet, a forecast is truly only a button push away. Not only that, but you also have options too. From national outlets to local TV meteorologists and even Facebook "meteorologists." Notice the quotes...
We have entered an age where weather forecasts are no longer given out by just the National Weather Service and local television meteorologists. Anyone with an Internet connection can jump online and find the latest weather forecast model, then freely post it anywhere they choose, all while adding their own "expertise" (there are those quotes again).
But there is a problem here. Many of us live in a "go, go, go" world, and sometimes the only way to know what's going on is to check that all-important social media feed while life whizzes by us at a bajillion miles an hour.
So when a photo like this shows up in your timeline:
It will get your attention.
Be honest: how many have already seen this photo/article recently? And how many of you believed it?
Sadly, it's a fake.
Much like the site TheOnion.com, Empire News is a satire site. It's full of make-believe articles and misinformation by design. The whole goal of the site is to pull an April Fool's gag on you every day of the week.
Yet, in our busy world, a headline and a fancy map like in the picture above spread like wildfire across the Internet.
Not too long ago, you may have seen this image floating about cyberspace:
It promises a hurricane and "strong concerns" for the Gulf Coast area. The title, the colors, the logo; it looks pretty legit and trustworthy.
The thing is, this never happened. Not even close.
The picture above was generated based on ONE forecast model run and was put out by one person with really good Photoshop skills. This was also done days in advance of what became Hurricane Cristobol (a hurricane that never even got close to the East coast, let alone the Gulf area). Models struggle with tropical systems beyond just a few days. This person took a forecast model image (which is just guidance, not an actual forecast) and reframed it to seem like an actual, legitimate forecast.
The image above was shared on social media more than 77,000 times and people in the Gulf panicked. They thought it was real. They thought another Katrina was coming. Not once did any reputable meteorologist or the National Hurricane Center issue a forecast like this.
So what gives here?
Well, in the case of the first example, it was just a fake article, poking fun at the weather community. It is satire, much like The Onion or the Colbert Report on TV.
In the second example (the hurricane image), it was the case of an ambitious young weather fan with little experience and education, but a large social media following, trying to publicly make a forecast. It drums up clicks on his website, he sells ads, and makes money.
While most everyday weather situations are not catastrophic, there are plenty that can be: hurricanes, snow storms and tornadoes. Knowing who to trust is key.
It's important you really consider the source when sharing and relying on forecast information you see online.
Who's the best? Hands down your LOCAL, qualified meteorologists are. No quotes there. They know the area, they know the impacts, and they forecast weather for your area on a daily basis (rain or shine).
Television meteorologists and the National Weather Service should be the only sources you trust in a life-threatening situation. They are trained and educated in the field of meteorology, specifically the meteorology of your area. And, for the record, the National Weather Service is the ONLY entity authorized to issue thunderstorm warnings. Even your local TV meteorologist does not have that authority.
In the hurricane example above, the person that created that image lives in California, has zero experience at hurricane forecasting, and certainly does not work for the Hurricane Center.
Okay, so what about a generic outlook? Say something like how the winter is going to shape up (will it be cold, snowy, mild, dry?).
Here again, you have options. Many will ask about the Farmers' Almanac and how valid that forecast will be. After all, they've been around for a long time and have a good amount of experience, right?
Well, can you ever recall when a snowstorm just stopped along a state line? See, the problem I have with things like the Farmers Almanac is that it divides its forecast right along state lines. Weather does not behave like that at all!
You would think a publication with so much experience would have realized that by now. What they are doing is more or less skewing to the average and covering their bases. For example, it says the Kansas to Missouri area was supposed to have a "warm to hot" summer. Well, YEAH! Every summer in this area is warm to hot. And as far as "average precipitation" goes, they were nowhere close. Parts of Iowa and Nebraska have received abundant moisture, while parts of Western Kansas continue to be in a crippling drought.
All right, what about the Old Farmer's Almanac? First off, did you know there were two Almanacs out there? Yeah, there's a Farmers' Almanac and then there's the Old Farmer's Almanac. Confusing already, isn't it? Also, there is something as an "almanac" we show on TV. It displays the high and the low for the day, plus records and averages. This is completely different than the publication known as "The Almanac".
The Old Farmer's Almanac follows a similar approach to the Farmers's Almanac, but is smart enough to not divide things right along made up state boundaries (the atmosphere doesn't know state lines exist).
And while many are already asking about how accurate the winter forecasts will be from both of these publications, take a look at that summer forecast and see how accurate it was. For most areas, not very.
What this comes down to is that predicting the future is not an exact science. And the farther out in time you go, the harder it will be to nail down the finer details. The hard truth that even meteorologists don't like is that once we get beyond about four to five days, forecast accuracy decreases. It doesn't matter how good you are, the overall accuracy falls. So does that mean we are dead wrong in a 7-day forecast? No, not at all. There is a good amount of usable info in an extended forecast. What we give you are what we typically call trends.
For example, model indications might be TRENDING to colder air for the winter, meaning each new instance of a model run keeps the temperatures cold. But that still doesn't mean it's 100 percent correct and will happen. Remember: forecast models are called guidance for a reason. This is why it's dangerous just to blindly grab on model image and throw it out as a forecast. Plus, even if the forecast is for a "warm" winter, all it takes is one cold snap for people to say the forecast was wrong; even though it wouldn't be.
Over the next few weeks, our team will be studying the atmospheric trends (what the atmosphere is trying to do) and see if we can discover a pattern. Once we have that pattern, we can then give you insight on what to expect going into the winter months (which don't really start until December). We will have all of that for you in our Winter Weather Special so keep watching for details on when it will air on TV.
In the meantime, I encourage you to think twice about where you get you weather information from and what you share on social media. Be careful what source you choose and if you're ever in doubt, double check that source. Chances are if it sounds too incredible, if the image looks like the "end of times", it might be someone ripping an image from a forecast model and giving it the ol' Photoshop treatment. It could also just be a site pulling your leg.
Always consider your source. In this day and age, those on social media are looking for attention. Sharing their bogus storm map photo thousands of times feeds their ego--and their bank accounts--and winds up doing a disservice to you and potentially your wallet.
Follow meteorologist JD Rudd on Twitter and Facebook for more weather information throughout the year and be sure to catch his forecasts weekend evenings and middays Wednesday through Friday on 41 Action News.
