KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Kansas City, it's time to 'Get ready for winter!'
The KSHB 41 weather team has been working through the data and finding clues about what the upcoming season may hold. So let's delve into the science behind winter weather patterns and explore the factors influencing our local climate.
We'll also discuss the recent surge in Northern lights sightings plus provide tips on the best way to clear out snow and ice this season. Plus it is not the holiday season without something sweet, we will introduce you to a local chocolatier and discuss what role our weather plays in her craft.
Northern light activity: Lindsey Anderson
Typically confined to higher latitudes, the northern lights have been dancing across our skies more frequently thanks to an active sun.
Many KSHB 41 viewers have sent in their stunning pictures, and at times, we could even faintly see the different colors near the city lights.
The sun goes through an 11-year cycle, alternating between periods of solar minimum and solar maximum.
During solar maximum, the sun becomes more active, producing more sunspots and solar flares.
These solar flares release charged particles that interact with Earth's atmosphere, creating the stunning aurora borealis.
While the Northern Lights are usually confined to polar regions, periods of intense solar activity can push them further south, allowing us to witness this natural wonder in unexpected places.
NASA and NOAA cannot pinpoint exactly when we reach the peak of our solar maximum period until they find a decline in the solar activity, but space weather forecasters are estimating the impressive solar storms and northern light sightings, even in urban areas, could last another year!
Lindsey's winter clue: "I think we'll see a near average to slightly above average temperatures this winter. This means we will still experience big temperature swings through the season - going from a very warm stretch to a very cold stretch."
La Niña influence: Cassie Wilson
Every year, the big winter weather headline usually has something to do with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
This year, the headline is focused on La Niña, which honestly, tends to be a muddy signal here in Kansas City.
Where the impact is more clear are where storms come a shore and along the exit regions of the jet stream.
La Niña brings wetter than normal conditions just to our east, warmer conditions to our south and colder conditions into the northern plains.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says there is a 57% chance that La Niña will most likely emerge by December and persist until March of 2025.
But when it comes to snow impacts, Kansas City tends to sit right on the line of where La Niña's snow machine runs out of steam.
As La Niña emerges it is likely to be weak, so let's zoom in more. Weak La Niña's don't tell us much about the snow picture for Kansas City but they do tend to bring us more rain on average.
Cassie's clue: "This winter could be a boom or bust kind of set up for snow. That means we could see some long dry stretches but then see systems line up... but will it be all rain or could we see big snows?"
Understanding cold snaps: Wes Peery
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is really just another way that we can describe what the polar vortex is doing. The polar vortex is in the stratosphere, which is 10 to 30 miles above us.
Meanwhile, we live, and all the weather that we experience, is in the troposphere, which is five to nine miles above us and so just an expression of what the polar vortex is doing.
Stable/positive phase: cold air is quickly flowing around the Arctic, leading us home here in Kansas and Missouri with warmer or above average temperatures.
Negative phase: that means the polar vortex is actually weaker, which allows for cold air to break away from the poles and head south. This is when we watch for potential cold air outbreaks.
Wes' clue: "The Arctic Oscillation tells us whether or not cold weather outbreaks are likely, so we can alert you when a visit from the Polar Vortex is a few weeks away"
The LRC puzzle: Jeff Penner
One theory behind the potential winter storm cycle is the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC).
This cycle sets up during October and November, and over the course of that 60 day period, we are able to tell what the upcoming winter months could be like. It's not only important to know the winter forecast because of how much snow we will get, but also important to the agricultural industry.
So will this weather pattern reduce or increase the drought pattern across the Plains?
Read Jeff's full blog here: KSHB 41 Weather Blog | Winter Forecast Special Tonight!
Jeff's winter clue: "Through the end of October drought conditions were rapidly worsening and then the storm systems came. So thought is we will see drought conditions improve if not vanish."
Ice melt best practices: Wes Peery
Before you put down the ice melt, check the low temperature for the night! Wes explains colder temperatures require different types of ice melt in the video below:
To wrap it up, here's what you need to know:
- Above 15 degrees: Use rock salt
- Below 15 degrees: Use magnesium chloride
- Sub zero: Use calcium chloride
'Weathering' chocolate: Cassie Wilson
Julie House, the mastermind behind Panache Chocolates, is redefining the world of chocolate right here in Kansas City. Her dedication to quality and unique flavors has earned her international recognition.
Despite the challenges of crafting chocolate in a climate that can be unpredictable, Julie's passion and expertise shine through in every bite.
Climate change poses a significant threat to the global chocolate industry.
The delicate cacao bean, the heart of chocolate, thrives in specific climatic conditions.
As global temperatures rise and weather patterns shift, these ideal conditions are becoming increasingly rare — this can lead to reduced yields, higher prices, and potential shortages.
Read the full story here: How one Kansas City shop is 'weathering' the global chocolate scene
Team snow predictions
Our team average comes to 14 inches of snow for Kansas City, keeping us below average.
In an average year, Kansas City typically sees 18.2 inches of snow.
Our team consensus is that we could see a wetter than normal winter but there is uncertainty if the cold snaps will line up to match up with the stormy part of the pattern.
Jeff says it will, maybe, but Cassie isn't quite convinced. Hence Jeff's 20" prediction and Cassie leaning on more rain instead of snow. Lindsey is also on the low snow train as well, while Wes is riding right down the middle.
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